Undercurrent 2021 power battery industry chain is not calm

Starting from 2021, the “haze” of soaring raw material prices has been looming over the entire power battery industry. Recently, the situation of raw material price increases faced by power battery companies has shown an expanding trend.

According to the latest data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), since 2021, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 62,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 300,000 yuan/ton recently, an increase of 380%; the price of lithium hydroxide has increased from 60,000 yuan/ton. Yuan/ton rose to 230,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 280%; the price of cobalt sulfate rose from 64,000 yuan/ton to 100,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 50%; under the background of the rapid growth of the price of main power battery materials, The cost of batteries has also increased significantly. Among them, the cost of ternary batteries has increased by as much as 57%, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased by as much as 74%.

“In 2021, the price of raw materials for power batteries will increase by 5-6 times compared with 2020. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate suppliers has reached 350,000 yuan / ton. There is almost no room for concessions when purchasing personnel grab the goods on the spot, and they need to deliver first-hand Money is delivered in one hand. It is a seller’s market now, and those suppliers who have the goods in hand are not in a hurry to ship. For the buyer, it is good to have the goods.” A power battery industry practitioner told “China Business News reporter.

The reporter learned that in order to cope with the current situation of high raw material prices, representatives of nearly 20 enterprises from new energy vehicles, power batteries and systems, and key materials recently participated in the equipment industry development center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in Beijing, China The “Symposium on the Supply Situation of Key Materials for Power Batteries” jointly organized by the Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance seeks to find countermeasures.

It is worth mentioning that in 2021, due to the pressure of rising raw material prices, the gross profit margin of power battery companies will generally decline. Among them, the “Battery Brother” CATL (300750.SZ) has an overall gross profit margin of 27% in the first half of 2021, while its profit margin in 2016 was as high as 44.84%. At the same time, the gross profit margin of Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ), a major domestic power battery manufacturer, also dropped to 18.30% in the third quarter of 2021.

Mei Wangqin, a new energy analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, believes that downstream terminal demand will still maintain a high growth rate in 2022. It is expected that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million, and the demand growth rate will be nearly 50%, while the supply of raw materials is still relatively high. It is difficult to match demand, and the overall shortage of raw materials will also be difficult to alleviate in 2022.

The price of raw materials is “rising”

In 2021, the upstream raw materials of power batteries will continue to “rise”, and power battery companies will expand production one after another. The explosive growth of new energy vehicles can be described as the three most eye-catching aspects of the electric vehicle industry chain.

In fact, since the end of 2020, the prices of various power battery raw materials have risen sharply. Heading into 2021, this upward trend has not changed.

According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, since 2021, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, the main raw material of power batteries, has risen from 62,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 300,000 yuan/ton recently, an increase of 380%; the price of lithium hydroxide has increased from 60,000 yuan/ton. / ton rose to 230,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 280%; cobalt sulfate price rose from 64,000 yuan / ton to 100,000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 50%; manganese sulfate price rose from 6,400 yuan / ton to 10,000 yuan / ton Yuan/ton, an increase of 55%; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose from 85,000 yuan/ton to 550,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 547%.

“According to our previous investigation, all kinds of materials for power batteries in my country are showing varying degrees of tight supply and rising prices. The main reason is that the rapid development of the industry has led to an imbalance in market supply and demand, and companies have excessive stockpiling in advance to increase market procurement anxiety.” Dong Yang, chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said.

A number of interviewees in the power battery industry chain told reporters that the most direct factor behind the continued rise in the price of power battery raw materials in 2021 is the explosive growth of new energy vehicles.

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2021, the national sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of 166.8%. The popularity of the new energy vehicle market has pushed up the market demand for power batteries. According to data released by the China Power Battery Industry Alliance, from January to November 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country reached 128.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 153.1%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries reached 63.3GWh, accounting for 49.3% of the total loading volume, a year-on-year increase of 92.5%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 64.8GWh, accounting for 50.5% of the total loading volume, a year-on-year increase of 270.3%.

However, although the new energy vehicle market will surge in 2021 and the shipment of power batteries will increase significantly year-on-year, power battery manufacturers will not feel relieved. The sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries has squeezed the profit margins of power battery manufacturers.

The reporter combed and found that the gross profit margin and net profit of power battery companies including CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and BYD (002594.SZ) declined in the first half and third quarter of 2021. In the first half of 2021, CATL’s power battery gross profit margin was 23%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year; in the third quarter of 2021, Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s gross profit margin was 18.3%, down 7 percentage points year-on-year; Funeng Technology (688567.SH) ) The net profit loss in the third quarter of 2021 was 194 million yuan, and the scope of the loss was further expanded; BYD’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2021 also fell by 29.41% year-on-year.

BYD explained in its semi-annual report that the decline in net profit was due to factors such as rising prices of raw materials such as bulk commodities. Funeng Technology said that in the third quarter of 2021, the gross profit margin will drop to a certain extent, and the increase in raw materials is one of the main reasons. At the same time, the company experienced a shortage of raw materials in the third quarter, which has a certain impact on the yield rate. company profit.

“In 2021, the price of power battery raw materials will continue to rise, the supply of negative electrode materials will continue to be tight, and the comprehensive cost of power battery companies will increase significantly. The increase in costs will indeed compress the profit space of power battery companies, and it will be even more difficult for small and medium-sized power battery companies.” The above-mentioned power battery Industry practitioners told reporters.

Expansion planning “large volume”

In 2021, the focus of the power battery industry chain is that in addition to the high prices of upstream raw materials, the large-scale expansion measures of the leading companies in the power battery industry have also been put under the spotlight, and the production capacity “arms race” of the leading companies in the power battery industry is still going on. .

In December 2021, Guoxuan Hi-Tech updated its production capacity planning, and will continue to build or expand on the basis of the existing 10 production bases.

Recently, Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s official WeChat account once again announced that the Yifeng Guoxuan Lithium Industry Project has broken ground. It is understood that Yifeng Guoxuan Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yichun Guoxuan Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. It plans to build a lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 50,000 tons and its supporting mining and beneficiation comprehensive development and utilization project. The 10,000-ton lithium battery-grade lithium carbonate project and the 7.5 million-ton annual lithium ore mining and processing project are expected to be completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2022. Previously, Guoxuan Hi-Tech mentioned in its semi-annual report that its production capacity will reach 300GWh in 2025.

At present, CATL’s expansion plans include 16GWh of Huxi project expansion, 40GWh of the fifth and sixth phases of Sichuan Times, 45GWh of planned total production in Cheliwan, 25GWh of Xiamen Times, 23GWh of Guizhou Times, and a fixed increase of 30GWh of Liyang Times Phase IV.

On December 8, 2021, Honeycomb Energy announced that it will challenge the goal of 600GWh power battery production capacity in 2025. This goal is comparable to the 700GWh~800GWh plan of the “Ning Wang”-Ningde era in the same period. Previously, AVIC Lithium, a second-tier power battery company, also announced that its planned production capacity will reach 500GWh by 2025.

According to the incomplete statistics of Gaogong Lithium Battery, since 2021, the total investment of domestic power and energy storage battery expansion projects has exceeded 500 billion yuan, and the rough estimate is that the expansion plan will exceed 1.4TWh. Over 76 billion yuan. According to incomplete statistics, by 2025, the planned production capacity of only a few leading power battery companies will reach 3 TWh~4TWh.

According to EV Volumes forecast, the global demand for power batteries in 2025 will be 919.4GWh, which will approach or even exceed 1TWh, while the current industry capacity is only 158.2GWh. The power battery market has great potential in the future.

However, a number of industry insiders also told reporters in the interview that the current capacity expansion plan in the industry seems a bit “crazy” and there is a risk of overheating investment.

“Whether it is the development of the new energy vehicle industry or the expansion of power battery companies, we should keep calm, and the market needs to cool down. The expansion of production should be carried out in stages, and the expansion of production capacity should be a process of gradual improvement. Only in this way can new energy be promoted. The healthy and orderly development of the automobile industry chain.” Su Hui, executive vice chairman of the Tangible Market Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told reporters.